The Retailer Autumn Edition_2020

How COVID-19 has changed the UK retail landscape

LUCY STAINTON HEAD OF RETAIL AND STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS Local Data Company

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE LOCAL DATA COMPANY’S RESEARCH ON RETAIL TRENDS ACROSS H1 2020 The Local Data Company is the UK’s most accurate source of data and insight on the GB retail market. We are the only company to use field research methodologies to capture information about the changing store landscape in near-real time. We publish extensive research on change in the sector every six months which is made publicly available. Our H1 2020 report has been much anticipated with the reporting period spanning the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic including lockdown which saw 80% of the retail and leisure market close temporarily. We analysed 400k units across 1,200 towns to understand the initial impact of the pandemic with interesting results, a few of which I’m going to discuss here. Footfall Throughout the pandemic we have been tracking footfall across a sample of our LDC sensor network. When lockdown restrictions were at their peak, footfall volumes were approximately -80% compared to the same week in 2019 across the device locations. When non-essential retail opened, footfall increased to -62% year-on-year. When the rest of the market followed, footfall settled around -35% based on a representative sample.

Reopening of non-essential retail From June 15th we have been tracking the rate at which stores reopen across the non-essential retail market to understand how quickly different sectors have bounced back. At the end of September, 72.9% of all retail and leisure businesses that were forced to close in March had reopened. Categories such as auto services and shoe repairs saw high rates of reopening, while travel agents only reopened 51.3% of stores due to travel restrictions and quarantine rules. 71.8% of the comparison goods retail sector had reopened with car showrooms (87.6%) reopening the most and charity shops (54.8%) the lowest. This is a result of the challenge of adapting charity stores to become COVID secure as well as recruitment of volunteers. Much of the convenience sector was able to remain open throughout lockdown, but of the businesses that did close (vaping stores and some bakers such as Greggs) only 66.5% have reopened. Comparison goods retail saw the largest decline of all classifications in H1 2020, with a net loss of 4,975 units – over four times that of the other categories. The convenience sector shrank by 768 units, however it was the only classification where the decline was marginally lower in H1 2020 than in H1 2019 (-787 units). Across all classifications, net loss was more pronounced in the multiples market compared to independents. Comparison goods multiples lost a net 4.2% of units, compared to just 2% of independents. This trend was repeated across the convenience (multiples -1.7%, independents -0.2%) and the service sector (multiples -1.9%, independents +0.1) which saw marginal growth in independent service units. Net change across retail classifications

WEEKLY FOOTFALL VOLUMES

Weekly footfall volumes, March – September 2020 (Source: Local Data Company) The most dramatic change was when retail reopened on the 15th June, causing a jump in footfall as shoppers rushed back to the high street. The week commencing 14th September was the first week since April to see a week-on-week decline (fall of 1%) as COVID cases began to rise once more.

6 | Autumn 2020 | the retailer