The Retailer Spring Edition 2021

IT’S TIME FOR RETAIL TO BUILD FORWARDS

Helen Dickinson OBE Chief Executive British Retail Consortium

With summer around the corner, Covid cases at bay, and retail and outdoor hospitality reopen- ing, it feels like we are finally coming out of the other side after a very long winter. Indeed, it is hard to not remain slightly cynical. After all, we have all felt this feeling of hope before – only to be dashed by news of an unforeseen emerging variant. But, this time feels different; the UK is speeding ahead with vaccinating the public, and the Government’s reopening strategy has been cautious – this might just be it, once and for all. Retail now has the opportunity to build back and recover. But what it recovers to is crucial. Prior to the pandemic, the industrywas already going through a period of extraordinary transformation, which accelerated under Covid. Trends have shifted and the modern consumer has changed. Pre-pandemic, one fifth of sales were made online, the crisis has seen this rise to one third (and even higher if food sales are excluded). While some of these sales will return to stores, the shift to online will remain. This is why it is so important that when we build back, we build forward and evolve to meet these needs and seize this new opportunity. But, this evolution is reliant on the retail workforce. Retail is the largest private sector employer in the UK, providing 3.1 million jobs, not to mention many more in warehousing, supply chains and logistics. However, many of these jobs are at risk. ONS figures show that the lowest number of peoplewere employed in retail during the final quarter of 2020 since 1999, with 67,000 fewer jobs in December 2020 than 2019. Some of these job losses are part and parcel of the ongoing transformation, but since 2015, our recent Jobs Report shows that while the UK workforce has risen by 3%, there has been a 3.9% drop in retail jobs. Technological innovation has driven automation, and this is likely to impact or replace nearly a third of all retail tasks by 2030. For example, the use of self-service checkouts will grow, warehouses will increasingly use automated bots to fulfil orders, and automated bookkeeping will replace accountants. While this transformation is positive, the pandemic has put many viable retail jobs at risk. 600,000 retail staff were on the Government’s furlough scheme, though this number will be starting to drop as more and more shops reopen. The BRC estimates that 250,000 staff might lose their jobs permanently once the scheme draws to a close. Government support such as rates relief, the furlough scheme and rent debt moratoriums have served as a lifeline for retail jobs, but with so-called “non-essential” retail stores missing out on £30bn in lost sales during the three lockdowns, Government must continue to provide support until consumer demand bounces back. There are still many opportunities for growth. Already new roles are being created, from ware - housing and delivery to thousands of highly skilled roles in digital marketing, AI and web design. These jobs are what makes retail a career of choice for hundreds of thousands of people across the country. However, retailers must build on this success. If we are to become the most advanced e-commerce market globally and support the UK’s goals as a centre for technological development, retailers will need to invest in technological transformation, AI, virtual and augmented reality, customised production, blockchain and 3D printing. If the industry takes on the challenge, evolves and builds forward during this recovery process, it will remain one of the most important employers in the country, it will bolster its position as one of the most advanced retail markets in the world, and it will continue to serve as the beating heart of communities across the UK. The rules of retail have been permanently rewritten, and we need to embrace this change.

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There are still many opportuni- ties for growth. Already new roles are being created, from warehousing and delivery to thousands of highly skilled roles in dig - ital marketing, AI and web design”.